DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04521-2
论文题名: Haze risk: information diffusion based on cellular automata
作者: Zheng C. ; Peng B. ; Sheng X. ; Wan A.
刊名: Natural Hazards
ISSN: 0921030X
出版年: 2021
卷: 107, 期: 3 起始页码: 2605
结束页码: 2623
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Cellular automata
; Haze risk
; Information diffusion
; Intense-mild control strategy
; Life cycle
英文关键词: cellular automaton
; diffusion
; disease control
; haze
; immunity
; infectious disease
; life cycle analysis
; risk assessment
英文摘要: Negative effects of haze risk can easily spread faster and more widely, however, existing studies rarely investigate the whole period or cycle of diffusion events, which leads to lowered public knowledge, often resulting in exaggerated negative effects. In this paper, the diffusion simulation model based on cellular automata is used to evaluate the diffusion of haze risk information. Firstly, according to the whole-life cycle of emergencies, the public affected by haze risk information is classified by resembling the SEIR infectious disease model. Secondly, a diffusion rule from unknown to exposed individuals is developed based on the theory of cellular automata. Then, according to the individual state transformation at different stages, a whole-life cycle model regarding haze risk information diffusion and propagation model is constructed. Finally, appropriate parameters are selected to calculate the results without intervention. The results show that during the whole evolution process, the unknowns continue to decrease, and the lurkers continue to increase. Due to the existence of the immunization period, the immunized persons reach their maximum number before they are about to lose immunity, and the number of communicators reaches their minimum. Afterward, the number of immunized persons reduced to a stable level, and the number of communicators continues to increase toward an agglomeration benefit. Therefore, in order to achieve effective control of the spread of haze risk information, strong and weak control measures are taken for each type of individuals, and the immunity of unknowns and lurkers is increased for individual type control. For the entire information diffusion control, increase communicator immunity and reduce immunization conversion rate. The study of the spread of haze risk information helps to increase the public's sense of responsibility, helps to improve the government's credibility, and contributes to the establishment of a harmonious society. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169521
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Management Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China; Binjiang College, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Wuxi, 214105, China
Recommended Citation:
Zheng C.,Peng B.,Sheng X.,et al. Haze risk: information diffusion based on cellular automata[J]. Natural Hazards,2021-01-01,107(3)