globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-020-00663-3
论文题名:
Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy
作者: Matthews H.D.; Tokarska K.B.; Nicholls Z.R.J.; Rogelj J.; Canadell J.G.; Friedlingstein P.; Frölicher T.L.; Forster P.M.; Gillett N.P.; Ilyina T.; Jackson R.B.; Jones C.D.; Koven C.; Knutti R.; MacDougall A.H.; Meinshausen M.; Mengis N.; Séférian R.; Zickfeld K.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2020
卷: 13, 期:12
起始页码: 769
结束页码: 779
语种: 英语
英文关键词: air temperature ; carbon budget ; environmental economics ; environmental policy ; global warming ; science and technology ; socioeconomic status
英文摘要: The remaining carbon budget represents the total amount of CO2 that can still be emitted in the future while limiting global warming to a given temperature target. Remaining carbon budget estimates range widely, however, and this uncertainty can be used to either trivialize the most ambitious mitigation targets by characterizing them as impossible, or to argue that there is ample time to allow for a gradual transition to a low-carbon economy. Neither of these extremes is consistent with our best understanding of the policy implications of remaining carbon budgets. Understanding the scientific and socio-economic uncertainties affecting the size of the remaining carbon budgets, as well as the methodological choices and assumptions that underlie their calculation, is essential before applying them as a policy tool. Here we provide recommendations on how to calculate remaining carbon budgets in a traceable and transparent way, and discuss their uncertainties and implications for both international and national climate policies. © 2020, Springer Nature Limited.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169646
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, Montréal, Canada; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland; Australian–German Climate and Energy College, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, ACT, Australia; College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Département de géosciences, École Normale Supérieure, PSL Research University, Sorbonne Université, École Polytechnique, CNRS, Paris, France; Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC, Canada; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; Department of Earth System Science, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Precourt Institute for Energy, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, United States; St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, NS, Canada; GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany; Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada; CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France

Recommended Citation:
Matthews H.D.,Tokarska K.B.,Nicholls Z.R.J.,et al. Opportunities and challenges in using remaining carbon budgets to guide climate policy[J]. Nature Geoscience,2020-01-01,13(12)
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