globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-021-00790-5
论文题名:
Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
作者: Brovkin V.; Brook E.; Williams J.W.; Bathiany S.; Lenton T.M.; Barton M.; DeConto R.M.; Donges J.F.; Ganopolski A.; McManus J.; Praetorius S.; de Vernal A.; Abe-Ouchi A.; Cheng H.; Claussen M.; Crucifix M.; Gallopín G.; Iglesias V.; Kaufman D.S.; Kleinen T.; Lambert F.; van der Leeuw S.; Liddy H.; Loutre M.-F.; McGee D.; Rehfeld K.; Rhodes R.; Seddon A.W.R.; Trauth M.H.; Vanderveken L.; Yu Z.
刊名: Nature Geoscience
ISSN: 17520894
出版年: 2021
卷: 14, 期:8
起始页码: 550
结束页码: 558
语种: 英语
英文摘要: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system. © 2021, Springer Nature Limited.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169724
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; CEN, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Department of Geography and Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Climate Service Center Germany (GERICS), Helmholtz-Zentrum Hereon, Hamburg, Germany; Global Systems Institute, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Human Evolution and Social Change and School of Complex Adaptive Systems, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, United States; Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Geology, Minerals, Energy and Geophysics Science Center, US Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States; Geotop Research Center, Université du Québec à Montréal, Montreal, Canada; Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; Institute of Global Environmental Change, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Shaanxi, China; Institute for Meteorology, Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Earth and Life Institute, UCLouvain, Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Independent Researcher, Buenos Aires, Argentina; Earth Lab, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Earth and Sustainability, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States; Institute of Geography, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago de Chile, Chile; School of Sustainability, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; PAGES (Past Global Changes), Bern, Switzerland; Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Institute of Environmental Physics, Ruprecht-Karls Universität Heidelberg, Heidelberg, Germany; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Department of Biology and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Institute of Geosciences, University of Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA, United States; Institute for Peat and Mire Research, School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China

Recommended Citation:
Brovkin V.,Brook E.,Williams J.W.,et al. Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system[J]. Nature Geoscience,2021-01-01,14(8)
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