globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.11.022
论文题名:
Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin
作者: Chen A.; Emanuel K.A.; Chen D.; Lin C.; Zhang F.
刊名: Science Bulletin
ISSN: 20959273
出版年: 2020
卷: 65, 期:5
起始页码: 419
结束页码: 424
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Extreme wind ; Mekong River Basin ; Return period ; Tropical cyclone
英文关键词: Climate models ; Food supply ; Rivers ; Storms ; Tropics ; Watersheds ; Wind ; Dynamical downscaling ; Extreme winds ; Global climate model ; Mekong river basins ; Return periods ; Tropical cyclone ; Tropical cyclone intensity ; Western North Pacific ; Hurricanes
英文摘要: The societal impact of extreme winds induced by tropical cyclones (TCs) is a major concern in the Mekong River Basin (MRB). Though no clear trend of landfalling TC intensity along the Vietnam coastline has been observed since the 1970s, climate models project an increasing TC intensity in the 21st century over the Western North Pacific, which is the primary TC source region influencing the MRB. Yet, how future TC activities will affect extreme winds quantitatively in the MRB remains unclear. By employing a novel dynamical downscaling technique using a specialized, coupled ocean-atmospheric model, shorter return periods of maximum wind speed in the MRB for 2081–2100 compared with 1981–2000 are projected based on five global climate models under the RCP8.5 scenario, suggesting increases in the future tropical cyclone intensity. The results point to consistently elevated future TC-related risks that may jeopardize sustainable development, disrupt food supply, and exacerbate conflicts in the region and beyond. © 2019 Science China Press
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/169855
Appears in Collections:气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg, 40530, Sweden; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, Center for Advanced Data Assimilation and Predictability Techniques, the Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, United States

Recommended Citation:
Chen A.,Emanuel K.A.,Chen D.,et al. Rising future tropical cyclone-induced extreme winds in the Mekong River Basin[J]. Science Bulletin,2020-01-01,65(5)
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