DOI: 10.1016/j.scib.2019.12.002
论文题名: Increasing impacts from extreme precipitation on population over China with global warming
作者: Zhang W. ; Zhou T.
刊名: Science Bulletin
ISSN: 20959273
出版年: 2020
卷: 65, 期: 3 起始页码: 243
结束页码: 252
语种: 英语
中文关键词: Extreme precipitation
; Global warming
; Impact
; Paris Agreement
; Population
英文关键词: Climate models
; Drought
; Climate projection
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Extreme precipitation
; Heavy precipitation
; Impact
; Population
; Southeastern china
; Weighted averages
; Global warming
英文摘要: Precipitation-related extremes are among the most impact-relevant consequences of a warmer climate, particularly for China, a region vulnerable to global warming and with a large population. Understanding the impacts and risks induced by future extreme precipitation changes is critical for mitigation and adaptation planning. Here, extreme precipitation changes under different levels of global warming and their associated impacts on populations in China are investigated using multimodel climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and population projections under Shared Socio-economic Pathways. Heavy precipitation would intensify with warming across China at a rate of 6.52% (5.22%–8.57%) per degree of global warming. The longest dry spell length would increase (decrease) south (north) of ~34°N. The low warming target of the Paris Agreement could substantially reduce the extreme precipitation related impacts compared to higher warming levels. For the area weighted average changes, the intensification in wet extremes could be reduced by 3.22%, 9.42% and 16.70% over China, and the lengthening of dry spells could be reduced by 0.72%, 4.75% and 5.31% in southeastern China, respectively, if global warming is limited to 1.5 °C as compared to 2, 3 and 4 °C. The Southeastern China is the hotspot of enhanced impacts due to the dense population. The impacts on populations induced by extreme precipitation changes are dominated by climate change, while future population redistribution plays a minor role. © 2019 Science China Press Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/170157
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China; Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China
Recommended Citation:
Zhang W.,Zhou T.. Increasing impacts from extreme precipitation on population over China with global warming[J]. Science Bulletin,2020-01-01,65(3)