DOI: 10.1016/j.tecto.2019.228289
论文题名: Earthquake supercycles and Long-Term Fault Memory
作者: Salditch L. ; Stein S. ; Neely J. ; Spencer B.D. ; Brooks E.M. ; Agnon A. ; Liu M.
刊名: Tectonophysics
ISSN: 00401951
出版年: 2020
卷: 774 语种: 英语
中文关键词: Aperiodicity
; Cluster
; Earthquake
; Supercycle
英文关键词: Faulting
; Probability
; Probability density function
; Accumulated strain
; Aperiodicity
; Cluster
; Earthquake hazard
; Earthquake recurrence
; Probability estimate
; Short term memory
; Supercycle
; Earthquakes
; cluster analysis
; displacement
; earthquake event
; fault zone
; paleoseismicity
; seismic hazard
; seismicity
; spatiotemporal analysis
英文摘要: Long records often show large earthquakes occurring in supercycles, sequences of temporal clusters of seismicity, cumulative displacement, and cumulative strain release separated by less active intervals. Supercycles and associated earthquake clusters are only partly characterized via the traditionally used aperiodicity, which measures the extent that a sequence differs from perfectly periodic. Supercycles are not well described by commonly used models of earthquake recurrence. In the Poisson model, the probability of a large earthquake is constant with time, so the fault has no memory. In a seismic cycle/renewal model, the probability is quasi-periodic, dropping to zero after a large earthquake, then increasing with time, so the probability of a large earthquake depends only on the time since the past one, and the fault has only “short-term memory.” We describe supercycles with a Long-Term Fault Memory (LTFM) model, where the probability of a large earthquake reflects the accumulated strain rather than elapsed time. The probability increases with accumulated strain (and time) until an earthquake happens, after which it decreases, but not necessarily to zero. Hence, the probability of an earthquake can depend on the earthquake history over multiple prior cycles. We use LTFM to simulate paleoseismic records from plate boundaries and intraplate areas. Simulations suggest that over timescales corresponding to the duration of paleoseismic records, the distribution of earthquake recurrence times can appear strongly periodic, weakly periodic, Poissonian, or bursty. Thus, a given paleoseismic window may not capture long-term trends in seismicity. This effect is significant for earthquake hazard assessment because whether an earthquake history is assumed to contain clusters can be more important than the probability density function chosen to describe the recurrence times. In such cases, probability estimates of the next earthquake will depend crucially on whether the cluster is treated as ongoing or over. © 2019 Elsevier B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/170704
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Northwestern University, 2145 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, IL 60208, United States; Institute for Policy Research, Northwestern University, 2040 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, IL 60208, United States; Department of Statistics, Northwestern University, 2006 Sheridan Rd., Evanston, IL 60208, United States; Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University, Sderot Magnes, Jerusalem, 9190401, Israel; Department of Geological Sciences, University of Missouri, 101 Geological Sciences Bldg., Columbia, MO 65211, United States
Recommended Citation:
Salditch L.,Stein S.,Neely J.,et al. Earthquake supercycles and Long-Term Fault Memory[J]. Tectonophysics,2020-01-01,774