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DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0090094
论文题名:
Using Mathematical Transmission Modelling to Investigate Drivers of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonality in Children in the Philippines
作者: Stuart Paynter; Laith Yakob; Eric A. F. Simões; Marilla G. Lucero; Veronica Tallo; Hanna Nohynek; Robert S. Ware; Philip Weinstein; Gail Williams; Peter D. Sly
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2014
发表日期: 2014-2-27
卷: 9, 期:2
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Seasons ; Respiratory infections ; Nutrition ; Seasonal variations ; Infants ; Humidity ; Immunity ; Molting
英文摘要: We used a mathematical transmission model to estimate when ecological drivers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) transmissibility would need to act in order to produce the observed seasonality of RSV in the Philippines. We estimated that a seasonal peak in transmissibility would need to occur approximately 51 days prior to the observed peak in RSV cases (range 49 to 67 days). We then compared this estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility to the seasonal patterns of possible ecological drivers of transmissibility: rainfall, humidity and temperature patterns, nutritional status, and school holidays. The timing of the seasonal patterns of nutritional status and rainfall were both consistent with the estimated seasonal pattern of transmissibility and these are both plausible drivers of the seasonality of RSV in this setting.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0090094&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/17984
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America;Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America;Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Muntinlupa City, Metro Manila, Philippines;Research Institute for Tropical Medicine, Department of Health, Muntinlupa City, Metro Manila, Philippines;Department of Vaccines and Immune Protection, National Institute for Health and Welfare, Helsinki, Finland;School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Queensland Children’s Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Barbara Hardy Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide, South Australia, Australia;School of Population Health, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia;Queensland Children’s Medical Research Institute, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Stuart Paynter,Laith Yakob,Eric A. F. Simões,et al. Using Mathematical Transmission Modelling to Investigate Drivers of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Seasonality in Children in the Philippines[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(2)
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