globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0108936
论文题名:
Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift
作者: Trisha L. Spanbauer; Craig R. Allen; David G. Angeler; Tarsha Eason; Sherilyn C. Fritz; Ahjond S. Garmestani; Kirsty L. Nash; Jeffery R. Stone
刊名: PLOS ONE
ISSN: 1932-6203
出版年: 2014
发表日期: 2014-10-3
卷: 9, 期:10
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Lakes ; Diatoms ; Paleoecology ; Ecosystems ; Paleoclimatology ; Community structure ; Freshwater ecology ; Paleoanthropology
英文摘要: Regime shifts are generally defined as the point of ‘abrupt’ change in the state of a system. However, a seemingly abrupt transition can be the product of a system reorganization that has been ongoing much longer than is evident in statistical analysis of a single component of the system. Using both univariate and multivariate statistical methods, we tested a long-term high-resolution paleoecological dataset with a known change in species assemblage for a regime shift. Analysis of this dataset with Fisher Information and multivariate time series modeling showed that there was a∼2000 year period of instability prior to the regime shift. This period of instability and the subsequent regime shift coincide with regional climate change, indicating that the system is undergoing extrinsic forcing. Paleoecological records offer a unique opportunity to test tools for the detection of thresholds and stable-states, and thus to examine the long-term stability of ecosystems over periods of multiple millennia.
URL: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0108936&type=printable
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/18137
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America;U.S. Geological Survey, Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America;Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden;Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States of America;Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences and School of Biological Sciences, University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America;Office of Research and Development, National Risk Management Research Laboratory, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Cincinnati, Ohio, United States of America;Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland, Australia;Department of Earth and Environmental Systems, Indiana State University, Terre Haute, Indiana, United States of America

Recommended Citation:
Trisha L. Spanbauer,Craig R. Allen,David G. Angeler,et al. Prolonged Instability Prior to a Regime Shift[J]. PLOS ONE,2014-01-01,9(10)
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