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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0124155
论文题名:	Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change
作者:	Oriana Ovalle-Rivera; Peter Läderach; Christian Bunn; Michael Obersteiner; Götz Schroth
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-4-14
卷:	10, 期:4
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Climate change ; Rain ; Africa ; Latitude ; Indonesia ; Seasons ; India ; Brazil
英文摘要:	Regional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0124155&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/20251
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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journal.pone.0124155.PDF（2210KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

International Center for Tropical Agriculture, DAPA program, Cali, Colombia;International Center for Tropical Agriculture, DAPA program, Cali, Colombia;Humboldt-University of Berlin, Faculty of Agriculture and Horticulture, Berlin, Germany;International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, ESM program, Laxenburg, Austria;C.P. 513, 68109–971 Santarém, Pará, Brazil

Recommended Citation:

Oriana Ovalle-Rivera,Peter Läderach,Christian Bunn,et al. Projected Shifts in Coffea arabica Suitability among Major Global Producing Regions Due to Climate Change[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(4)

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