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DOI:	10.1371/journal.pone.0140687
论文题名:	Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data
作者:	Chris Geremia; Michael W. Miller; Jennifer A. Hoeting; Michael F. Antolin; N. Thompson Hobbs
刊名:	PLOS ONE
ISSN:	1932-6203
出版年:	2015
发表日期:	2015-10-28
卷:	10, 期:10
语种:	英语
英文关键词:	Deer ; Chronic wasting disease ; Population growth ; Mountains ; Mules ; Colorado ; Animal prion diseases ; Predation
英文摘要:	Epidemics of chronic wasting disease (CWD) of North American Cervidae have potential to harm ecosystems and economies. We studied a migratory population of mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) affected by CWD for at least three decades using a Bayesian framework to integrate matrix population and disease models with long-term monitoring data and detailed process-level studies. We hypothesized CWD prevalence would be stable or increase between two observation periods during the late 1990s and after 2010, with higher CWD prevalence making deer population decline more likely. The weight of evidence suggested a reduction in the CWD outbreak over time, perhaps in response to intervening harvest-mediated population reductions. Disease effects on deer population growth under current conditions were subtle with a 72% chance that CWD depressed population growth. With CWD, we forecasted a growth rate near one and largely stable deer population. Disease effects appear to be moderated by timing of infection, prolonged disease course, and locally variable infection. Long-term outcomes will depend heavily on whether current conditions hold and high prevalence remains a localized phenomenon.
URL:	http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0140687&type=printable
Citation statistics:
资源类型:	期刊论文
标识符:	http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/21485
Appears in Collections:	过去全球变化的重建影响、适应和脆弱性科学计划与规划气候变化与战略全球变化的国际研究计划气候减缓与适应气候变化事实与影响

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journal.pone.0140687.PDF（923KB）	期刊论文	作者接受稿	开放获取	CC BY-NC-SA	View Download

作者单位:

Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America;Wildlife Health Program, Colorado Division of Parks and Wildlife, Fort Collins, Colorado, Colorado, United States of America;Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America;Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America;Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, Department of Ecosystem Science and Sustainability and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, United States of America

Recommended Citation:

Chris Geremia,Michael W. Miller,Jennifer A. Hoeting,et al. Bayesian Modeling of Prion Disease Dynamics in Mule Deer Using Population Monitoring and Capture-Recapture Data[J]. PLOS ONE,2015-01-01,10(10)

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