ERL." href="http://images.iop.org/objects/erw/news/12/4/4/pic1.jpg">Drought and high temperatures
To come up with the results, the scientists – from Wageningen University in the Netherlands, Princeton University, US, and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria – applied a hydrological-electricity modelling framework to 24,515 hydropower plants and 1427 thermoelectric installations worldwide. They plotted their results across 12 sub-regions, including the Amazon, Mediterranean countries and Western North America, and identified critical years for both hydropower and thermoelectric generation.
The study highlighted the challenge faced by energy suppliers during the major drought years of 2003 in Europe (reductions of 6.6% in hydropower and 4.7% in thermoelectric power) and 2007 in Eastern North America (reductions of 6.1% in hydropower and 9.0% in thermoelectric power). Taking a large-scale view of the issue could pinpoint particular areas of concern.
"Some streamflow drought and high water temperature events exceed the boundaries of sub-regions during some critical years," reports the team in Environmental Research Letters (ERL). "This might have important implications, because when these events hamper hydro- and thermoelectric power generation in multiple sub-regions at once, the potential to alleviate power shortage through transmission is limited."
To prepare data for the model, the group determined the mean number of days per year where streamflow corresponded to its 10-percentile value, signifying extreme low flow. For water temperature, the researchers identified the number of days with values in the 90th percentile and above.
The team also calculated the number of days that both low flow and high water temperature coincided. This figure represents tough conditions for the electricity sector, impacting both hydro- and thermoelectric capacity with potentially drastic reductions in the reliability of the power supply system.
The scientists hope that their framework model will provide more insight into the links between variations in climate and the world’s supply of electricity.
Related links
- Impacts of recent drought and warm years on water resources and electricity supply worldwide Michelle T H van Vliet et al 2016 Environ. Res. Lett. 11 124021
- ERL