globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.7249/RR1471
报告号: RR-1471-AF
报告题名:
Continuity and Contingency in USAF Posture Planning
作者: Alan J. Vick; Stacie L. Pettyjohn; Meagan L. Smith; Sean M. Zeigler; Daniel Tremblay; Phillip Johnson
出版者: RAND Corporation
出版年: 2016
发表日期: 2016
总页数: 146
国家: 美国
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Military Logistics ; Defense Infrastructure ; Military Strategy ; United States Air Force ; Military Facilities
中文主题词: 基础设施
主题词: INFRASTRUCTURE
英文摘要: Good posture planning must distinguish powerful long-term trends from headline-grabbing events, have sufficient breadth to capture a wide range of possible posture demands, and be robust in the face of the inevitable uncertainties about where, when, and how U.S. interests will be challenged. U.S. Air Force (USAF) planners must design a posture that can evolve to meet changing global demands over a multidecade period, while making immediate adaptations to meet the demands of today's crises and contingencies. Planning processes typically are based on assumptions, making judgments about the relative probability and importance of demands and other factors, but at least some of these assumptions are bound to be wrong. The planning process should seek to reduce the importance of assumptions by designing a posture that is robust across many alternative futures, including diverse assumptions and a wide range of demands. Massive scenario generation and contingent event analysis can test future posture options across a wide range of demands. Planners should also combine sufficient posture "stickiness" to maintain enduring access in key locations and sufficient agility to surge from these locations to meet out-of-area demands and shrink back as operational demands end.
URL: http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1471/RAND_RR1471.pdf
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资源类型: 研究报告
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/26941
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
气候变化与战略

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Recommended Citation:
Alan J. Vick,Stacie L. Pettyjohn,Meagan L. Smith,et al. Continuity and Contingency in USAF Posture Planning. 2016-01-01.
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