| DOI: | 10.7249/RR1478
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| 报告号: | RR-1478-RC
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| 报告题名: | Driving to Safety: How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability? |
| 作者: | Nidhi Kalra; Susan M. Paddock
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| 出版者: | RAND Corporation
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 发表日期: | 2016
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| 总页数: | 15
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Transportation Safety
; Autonomous Vehicles
; RAND-initiated
; Traffic Accidents
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| 中文主题词: | 交通设施
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| 主题词: | TRANSPORTATION
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| 英文摘要: | How safe are autonomous vehicles? The answer is crucial for developing sound policies to govern their deployment. One proposal to assess safety is to test-drive autonomous vehicles in real traffic, observe their performance, and make statistical comparisons to human driver performance. This approach is logical, but is it practical? In this report, we calculate the number of miles that would need to be driven to provide clear statistical evidence of autonomous vehicle safety. Given that current traffic fatalities and injuries are rare events compared with vehicle miles traveled, we show that fully autonomous vehicles would have to be driven hundreds of millions of miles and sometimes hundreds of billions of miles to demonstrate their safety in terms of fatalities and injuries. Under even aggressive testing assumptions, existing fleets would take tens and sometimes hundreds of years to drive these miles — an impossible proposition if the aim is to demonstrate performance prior to releasing them for consumer use. Our findings demonstrate that developers of this technology and third-party testers cannot simply drive their way to safety. Instead, they will need to develop innovative methods of demonstrating safety and reliability. And yet, it may still not be possible to establish with certainty the safety of autonomous vehicles. Therefore, it is imperative that autonomous vehicle regulations are adaptive — designed from the outset to evolve with the technology so that society can better harness the benefits and manage the risks of these rapidly evolving and potentially transformative technologies. |
| URL: | http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1400/RR1478/RAND_RR1478.pdf
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/26979
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
气候变化与战略
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| RAND_RR1478.pdf（275KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Nidhi Kalra,Susan M. Paddock. Driving to Safety: How Many Miles of Driving Would It Take to Demonstrate Autonomous Vehicle Reliability?. 2016-01-01.
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