| 报告题名: | Lebanon on the brink |
| 作者: | Gade, Tine
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 发表日期: | 2016
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| 国家: | 挪威
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Midtøsten og Nord Afrika / The Middle East and North Africa
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| 英文摘要: | Gravely affected by the Syrian crisis, Lebanon has managed to
remain relatively stable against all odds – despite the influx of
some 1.5 million Syrian refugees and internal political crisis involving
actors who support opposing Syrian factions. Lebanon’s
resilience can be explained by the high opportunity cost of state
breakdown for domestic, regional and international political actors.
Moreover, international economic assistance, diaspora remittances
and informal networks established by refugees help
to prevent outright economic breakdown. Yet, stability remains
extremely precarious. Important tipping points include (1) the IS
strategy of spreading the conflict to Lebanon, and the consequent
disintegration of the army along sectarian lines, (2) democratic
decline and popular dissatisfaction, (3) Hizbullah’s domestic ambitions
and Israeli fears over the group’s growing military power
and (4) the potential for frustration between refugees and host
communities turning into recurrent violence. However, (5) the
slow economic decline and the worsening sanitary conditions
stand out as the greatest challenges. |
| URL: | https://brage.bibsys.no/xmlui/bitstream/handle/11250/2403262/NUPI_Policy_Brief_23-16_Tine_Gade.pdf?sequence=3&isAllowed=y
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/29174
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| NUPI_Policy_Brief_23-16_Tine_Gade.pdf（638KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Gade, Tine. Lebanon on the brink. 2016-01-01.
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