| DOI: | 10.2172/1028887
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| 报告号: | SAND2010-2200
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| 报告题名: | Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states. |
| 作者: | Loose, Verne W.; Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll; Stamber, Kevin Louis; Reinert, Rhonda K.; Backus, George A.; Warren, Drake E.; Zagonel, Aldo A.; Ehlen, Mark Andrew; Klise, Geoffrey T.; Vargas, Vanessa N.
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| 出版年: | 2010
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| 发表日期: | 2010-04-01
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| 总页数: | 28
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文主题词: | 人口
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| 主题词: | POPULATION
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| 英文摘要: | Policy makers will most likely need to make decisions about climate policy before climate scientists have resolved all relevant uncertainties about the impacts of climate change. This study demonstrates a risk-assessment methodology for evaluating uncertain future climatic conditions. We estimate the impacts of climate change on U.S. state- and national-level economic activity from 2010 to 2050. To understand the implications of uncertainty on risk and to provide a near-term rationale for policy interventions to mitigate the course of climate change, we focus on precipitation, one of the most uncertain aspects of future climate change. We use results of the climate-model ensemble from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report 4 (AR4) as a proxy for representing climate uncertainty over the next 40 years, map the simulated weather from the climate models hydrologically to the county level to determine the physical consequences on economic activity at the state level, and perform a detailed 70-industry analysis of economic impacts among the interacting lower-48 states. We determine the industry-level contribution to the gross domestic product and employment impacts at the state level, as well as interstate population migration, effects on personal income, and consequences for the U.S. trade balance. We show that the mean or average risk of damage to the U.S. economy from climate change, at the national level, is on the order of $1 trillion over the next 40 years, with losses in employment equivalent to nearly 7 million full-time jobs. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1028887
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/39869
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1028887.pdf（510KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Loose, Verne W.,Lowry, Thomas Stephen,Malczynski, Leonard A.,et al. Executive summary for assessing the near-term risk of climate uncertainty : interdependencies among the U.S. states.. 2010-01-01.
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