| DOI: | 10.2172/1010914
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| 报告号: | DOE/ER64428
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| 报告题名: | Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models" |
| 作者: | Christopher S. Bretherton
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| 出版年: | 2011
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| 发表日期: | 2011-04-08
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| 总页数: | 11
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| 国家: | 美国
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 中文主题词: | 海洋
; 振荡
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| 主题词: | OCEANS
; OSCILLATIONS
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| 英文摘要: | This project was a continuation of previous work under DOE CCPP funding in which we developed a twin approach of non-homogeneous hidden Markov models (NHMMs) and coupled ocean-atmosphere (O-A) intermediate-complexity models (ICMs) to identify the potentially predictable modes of climate variability, and to investigate their impacts on the regional-scale. We have developed a family of latent-variable NHMMs to simulate historical records of daily rainfall, and used them to downscale seasonal predictions. We have also developed empirical mode reduction (EMR) models for gaining insight into the underlying dynamics in observational data and general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Using coupled O-A ICMs, we have identified a new mechanism of interdecadal climate variability, involving the midlatitude oceans mesoscale eddy field and nonlinear, persistent atmospheric response to the oceanic anomalies. A related decadal mode is also identified, associated with the oceans thermohaline circulation. The goal of the continuation was to build on these ICM results and NHMM/EMR model developments and software to strengthen two key pillars of support for the development and application of climate models for climate change projections on time scales of decades to centuries, namely: (a) dynamical and theoretical understanding of decadal-to-interdecadal oscillations and their predictability; and (b) an interface from climate models to applications, in order to inform societal adaptation strategies to climate change at the regional scale, including model calibration, correction, downscaling and, most importantly, assessment and interpretation of spread and uncertainties in multi-model ensembles. Our main results from the grant consist of extensive further development of the hidden Markov models for rainfall simulation and downscaling specifically within the non-stationary climate change context together with the development of parallelized software; application of NHMMs to downscaling of rainfall projections over India; identification and analysis of decadal climate signals in data and models; and, studies of climate variability in terms of the dynamics of atmospheric flow regimes. Each of these project components is elaborated on below, followed by a list of publications resulting from the grant. |
| URL: | http://www.osti.gov/scitech/servlets/purl/1010914
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 研究报告
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/40256
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| Appears in Collections: | 过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略
全球变化的国际研究计划
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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| 1010914.pdf（140KB） | 研究报告 | -- | 开放获取 | | View
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Christopher S. Bretherton. Final Technical Report for "Collaborative Research. Regional climate-change projections through next-generation empirical and dynamical models". 2011-01-01.
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