globalchange  > 过去全球变化的重建
DOI: doi:10.1038/nclimate3202
论文题名:
Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement
作者: Glen P. Peters; Robbie M. Andrew; Josep G. Canadell; Sabine Fuss; Robert B. Jackson; Jan ; Ivar Korsbakken; Corinne Le Qué; ; Nebojsa Nakicenovic
刊名: Nature Climate Change
ISSN: 1758-696X
EISSN: 1758-6816
出版年: 2017-01-30
卷: Volume:7, 页码:Pages:118;122 (2017)
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate-change mitigation, Energy economics, Climate-change policy, Energy policy
英文摘要:

Current emission pledges to the Paris Agreement appear insufficient to hold the global average temperature increase to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels1. Yet, details are missing on how to track progress towards the ‘Paris goal’, inform the five-yearly ‘global stocktake’, and increase the ambition of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). We develop a nested structure of key indicators to track progress through time. Global emissions2, 3 track aggregated progress1, country-level decompositions track emerging trends4, 5, 6 that link directly to NDCs7, and technology diffusion8, 9, 10 indicates future reductions. We find the recent slowdown in global emissions growth11 is due to reduced growth in coal use since 2011, primarily in China and secondarily in the United States12. The slowdown is projected to continue in 2016, with global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry similar to the 2015 level of 36GtCO2. Explosive and policy-driven growth in wind and solar has contributed to the global emissions slowdown, but has been less important than economic factors and energy efficiency. We show that many key indicators are currently broadly consistent with emission scenarios that keep temperatures below 2°C, but the continued lack of large-scale carbon capture and storage13 threatens 2030 targets and the longer-term Paris ambition of net-zero emissions.

URL: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n2/full/nclimate3202.html
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/419
Appears in Collections:过去全球变化的重建
影响、适应和脆弱性
气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
全球变化的国际研究计划

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Recommended Citation:
Glen P. Peters,Robbie M. Andrew,Josep G. Canadell,et al. Key indicators to track current progress and future ambition of the Paris Agreement[J]. Nature Climate Change,2017-01-30,Volume:7:Pages:118;122 (2017).
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