globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: doi:10.1038/nclimate2703
论文题名:
Soot and short-lived pollutants provide political opportunity
作者: David G. Victor
刊名: Nature Climate Change
ISSN: 1758-836X
EISSN: 1758-6956
出版年: 2015-07-13
卷: Volume:5, 页码:Pages:796;798 (2015)
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Social scientist/Social science ; Geography/geographer ; Sociology/sociologist ; Environmental economics/Economist ; Climate policy ; Environmental policy ; Global change ; Earth system science ; Climatologist ; Climate science ; Carbon management ; Carbon markets ; Energy ; Renewables ; Palaeoclimatology/Palaeoclimatologist ; Climate modelling/modeller ; Carbon cycle ; Atmospheric scientist ; Oceanography/marine science ; Sustainability ; Geophysicist/Geophysics ; Biogeoscience/Biogeoscientist ; Hydrology/Hydrogeology ; Greenhouse gas verification ; Ecologist/ecology ; Conservation ; Meteorology/meteorologist
英文摘要:

Cutting levels of soot and other short-lived pollutants delivers tangible benefits and helps governments to build confidence that collective action on climate change is feasible. After the Paris climate meeting this December, actually reducing these pollutants will be essential to the credibility of the diplomatic process.

Over the past two decades there has been an increasing amount of scientific research showing that a reduction in black carbon (BC, also known as soot), tropospheric ozone, methane and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) can slow near-term climate change significantly more than previously thought1. All of these compounds are short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) that persist in the atmosphere for days to a decade and a half — as opposed to CO2 and other long-lived gases with atmospheric lifetimes of hundreds to thousands of years, which have historically dominated scientific and political attention on climate change.

The fresh scientific insights about SLCPs are opening up a new political front in the battle to mitigate climate change. With available technologies, it is possible to cut these pollutants drastically; reductions of 30% for methane, 75% for black carbon, and nearly 100% for the most potent HFCs are achievable. This would avoid up to 0.6 °C of warming by mid-century, while also slowing the rise in sea levels (Fig. 1), the melting of glaciers, and the retreat of the Arctic ice cap1. These are not hypothetical cuts; in just two decades, California, for example, has cut its emissions of black carbon and several pollutants that produce ozone by half7.

Figure 1: Avoided sea-level rise at 2100 due to aggressive mitigation of long-lived CO2 and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs).
Avoided sea-level rise at 2100 due to aggressive mitigation of long-lived CO2 and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs).

Such aggressive actions can reduce the rise in sea levels by 35 cm (uncertainty range is 17–70 cm) from the projected sea-level rise of 112 cm (49–210 cm) under a business-as-usual scenario for emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0). The pie chart shows percentage contribution of each pollutant. Mitigation of the SLCP methane would lead to reductions in tropospheric ozone, another SLCP, and hence the pie chart includes both. As a long-lived pollutant, CO2 plays a substantial role (blue section), but reduction in SLCPs (shown in darker colours) would lead to a larger degree of avoided sea level. (Under a more intensive business-as-usual RCP8.5 level, reductions in CO2 would increase the share of CO2 mitigation to 50%). All of the simulated values shown in the pie chart are taken from ref. 17.

  1. Ramanathan, V. & Xu, Y. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 107, 80558062 (2010).
  2. Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone: Summary For Decision Makers (UNEP and WMO, 2011).
  3. Shindell, D. T. et al. Science 335, 183189 (2012).
  4. Xu, Y., Zaelke, D., Velders, G. J. M. & Ramanathan, V. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 60836089 (2013).
  5. Jacobson, M. Z. S. J. Geophys. Res. 115, D14209D14232 (2010).
  6. IPCC Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change (eds Edenhofer, O. et al.) (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).
  7. Ramanathan, V. et al. Black Carbon and the Regional Climate of California (Report to California Air Resources Board, 2013).
  8. Lim, S. S. et al. Lancet 380, 22242260 (2013).
  9. Schmale, J., Shindell, D., von Schneidemesser, E., Chabay, I. & Lawrence, M. Air pollution: Clean up our Skies. Nature News (19 November 2014); http://www.nature.com/news/air-pollution-clean-up-our-skies-1.16352
  10. Pierrehumbert, R. T. Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 42, 341379 (2014).
  11. Rogelj, J. et al. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 111, 1632516330 (2014).
  12. Davis, S. J., Caldeira, K. & Matthews, H. D. Science 329, 13301333 (2010).
  13. Keohane, R. O. & Victor, D. G. Perspect. Polit. 9, 723 (2011).
  14. Velders, G. J. M., Andersen, S. O., Daniel, J. S., Fahey, D. W. & McFarland, M. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 104, 48144819 (2007).
  15. Ramanathan, V. Science 190, 5052 (1975).
  16. Sabel, C. F. & Victor, D. G. Climatic Change (in the press).
  17. Hu, A., Xu, Y., Tebaldi, C., Washington, W. M. & Ramanathan, V. Nature Clim. Change 3, 15 (2013).

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Affiliations

  1. School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California at San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0519, La Jolla, California 92093-0519, USA and the Global Agenda Council on Governance for Sustainable Development, World Economic Forum, 91-93 route de la Capite, CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva, Switzerland

    • David G. Victor
  2. Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, 2300 Wisconsin Avenue, NW, Washington DC 20007, USA

    • Durwood Zaelke
  3. Center for Clouds, Chemistry & Climate Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0221, La Jolla, California 92093-0221, USA

    • Veerabhadran Ramanathan
URL: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v5/n9/full/nclimate2703.html
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/4664
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科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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David G. Victor. Soot and short-lived pollutants provide political opportunity[J]. Nature Climate Change,2015-07-13,Volume:5:Pages:796;798 (2015).
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