DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0097.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028500068
论文题名: Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere climate variability associated with the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex
作者: Byrne N.J. ; Shepherd T.G. ; Woollings T. ; Plumb R.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 18 起始页码: 7125
结束页码: 7139
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Fighter aircraft
; Ozone
; Random processes
; Stochastic models
; Stochastic systems
; Troposphere
; Vortex flow
; Anomalies
; Antarctic oscillation
; Climate classification/regimes
; Seasonal forecasting
; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
; Climate models
英文摘要: Statistical models of climate generally regard climate variability as anomalies about a climatological seasonal cycle, which are treated as a stationary stochastic process plus a long-term seasonally dependent trend. However, the climate system has deterministic aspects apart from the climatological seasonal cycle and long-term trends, and the assumption of stationary statistics is only an approximation. The variability of the Southern Hemisphere zonal-mean circulation in the period encompassing late spring and summer is an important climate phenomenon and has been the subject of numerous studies. It is shown here, using reanalysis data, that this variability is rendered highly nonstationary by the organizing influence of the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex, which breaks time symmetry. It is argued that the zonal-mean tropospheric circulation variability during this period is best viewed as interannual variability in the transition between the springtime and summertime regimes induced by variability in the vortex breakdown. In particular, the apparent long-term poleward jet shift during the early-summer season can be more simply understood as a delay in the equatorward shift associated with this regime transition. The implications of such a perspective for various open questions are discussed. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48712
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Department of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Byrne N.J.,Shepherd T.G.,Woollings T.,et al. Nonstationarity in Southern Hemisphere climate variability associated with the seasonal breakdown of the stratospheric polar vortex[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(18)