DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0715.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85022326631
论文题名: A multimodel intercomparison of an intense typhoon in future, warmer climates by Four 5-km-Mesh models
作者: Kanada S. ; Takemi T. ; Kato M. ; Yamasaki S. ; Fudeyasu H. ; Tsuboki K. ; Arakawa O. ; Takayabu I.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 15 起始页码: 6017
结束页码: 6036
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Boundary conditions
; Climate models
; Earth atmosphere
; Global warming
; Hurricanes
; Mesh generation
; Rain
; Storms
; Water vapor
; Weather forecasting
; Wind
; Atmospheric general circulation models
; Cloud-resolving storm simulators
; Extreme events
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; National center for atmospheric researches
; Regional model
; Tropical cyclone
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate change
英文摘要: Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) sometimes cause huge disasters, so it is imperative to explore the impacts of climate change on such TCs. Therefore, the authors conducted numerical simulations of the most destructive historical TC in Japanese history, Typhoon Vera (1959), in the current climate and a global warming climate. The authors used four nonhydrostatic models with a horizontal resolution of 5 km: the cloud-resolving storm simulator, the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) operational nonhydrostatic mesoscale model, and the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Initial and boundary conditions for the control simulation were provided by the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis dataset. Changes between the periods of 1979-2003 and 2075-99 were estimated from climate runs of a 20-km-mesh atmospheric general circulation model, and these changes were added to the initial and boundary conditions of the control simulation to produce the future climate conditions. Although the representation of inner-core structures varies largely between the models, all models project an increase in the maximum intensity of future typhoons. It is found that structural changes only appeared around the storm center with sudden changes in precipitation and near-surface wind speeds as the radius of maximum wind speed (RMW) contracted. In the future climate, the water vapor mixing ratio in the lower troposphere increased by 3-4 g kg-1. The increased water vapor allowed the eyewall updrafts to form continuously inside the RMW and contributed to rapid condensation in the taller and more intense updrafts. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: JSPS, Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48738
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya, Aichi, Japan; Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Uji, Kyoto, Japan; Yokohama National University, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan; University of Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Meteorological Research Institute, JMA, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Kanada S.,Takemi T.,Kato M.,et al. A multimodel intercomparison of an intense typhoon in future, warmer climates by Four 5-km-Mesh models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(15)