DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0803.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85025671510
论文题名: Contribution of Atlantic and pacific multidecadal variability to Twentieth-Century temperature changes
作者: Stolpe M.B. ; Medhaug I. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 16 起始页码: 6279
结束页码: 6295
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Global warming
; Climate variability
; Global climate model
; Global surface temperature
; Internal variability
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Multidecadal variability
; Northern Hemispheres
; Pacific decadal oscillation
; Climate models
; Papaya mosaic virus
英文摘要: Recent studies have suggested that significant parts of the observed warming in the early and the late twentieth century were caused by multidecadal internal variability centered in the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Here, a novel approach is used that searches for segments of unforced preindustrial control simulations from global climate models that best match the observed Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal variability (AMV and PMV, respectively). In this way, estimates of the influence of AMV and PMV on global temperature that are consistent both spatially and across variables are made. Combined Atlantic and Pacific internal variability impacts the global surface temperatures by up to 0.15°C from peak-to-peak on multidecadal time scales. Internal variability contributed to the warming between the 1920s and 1940s, the subsequent cooling period, and the warming since then. However, variations in the rate of warming still remain after removing the influence of internal variability associated with AMV and PMV on the global temperatures. During most of the twentieth century, AMV dominates over PMV for the multidecadal internal variability imprint on global and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Less than 10% of the observed global warming during the second half of the twentieth century is caused by internal variability in these two ocean basins, reinforcing the attribution of most of the observed warming to anthropogenic forcings. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48787
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Stolpe M.B.,Medhaug I.,Knutti R.. Contribution of Atlantic and pacific multidecadal variability to Twentieth-Century temperature changes[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(16)