| 英文摘要: | Clim. Dynam. http://doi.org/x6r (2015)
Local climate is influenced by regional radiative forcing as well as global circulation effects such as the introduction of air masses from other regions. Climate change will impact on both of these processes, so understanding of how the local and global mechanisms will impact on regional temperature and precipitation is needed.
Heiko Paeth and colleagues from the University of Würzburg, Germany, use a global climate model alongside a regional climate model to assess the projected contribution from these two processes to Asian climate change for 2001–2100. To study local effects, they increase greenhouse-gas concentrations in the region with a control situation for the rest of the globe, whereas the global effect study uses a consistently forced global simulation instead.
The authors report that changes in the local radiative forcing result in a minor warming effect (0.5 °C) but minimal changes in precipitation or circulation, but air masses entering the region are responsible for most of the change in temperature (>4 °C) and precipitation (increased wetness). These findings emphasize the need to consider regional climate change within a global context. |