DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0572.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020129887
论文题名: Observed and projected changes to the precipitation annual cycle
作者: Marvel K. ; Biasutti M. ; Bonfils C. ; Taylor K.E. ; Kushnir Y. ; Cook B.I.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 13 起始页码: 4983
结束页码: 4995
语种: 英语
英文摘要: Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to cause spatial and temporal shifts in precipitation patterns. These may be apparent in changes to the annual cycle of zonal mean precipitation P. Trends in the amplitude and phase of the P annual cycle in two long-term, global satellite datasets are broadly similar. Model-derived fingerprints of externally forced changes to the amplitude and phase of the P seasonal cycle, combined with these observations, enable a formal detection and attribution analysis. Observed amplitude changes are inconsistent with model estimates of internal variability but not attributable to the model-predicted response to external forcing. This mismatch between observed and predicted amplitude changes is consistent with the sustained La Niña-like conditions that characterize the recent slowdown in the rise of the global mean temperature. However, observed changes to the annual cycle phase do not seem to be driven by this recent hiatus. These changes are consistent with model estimates of forced changes, are inconsistent (in one observational dataset) with estimates of internal variability, and may suggest the emergence of an externally forced signal. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: DOE, U.S. Department of Energy
; NASA, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48833
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Columbia University, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Marvel K.,Biasutti M.,Bonfils C.,et al. Observed and projected changes to the precipitation annual cycle[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(13)