DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0840.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021081159
论文题名: Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 model
作者: Zhang L. ; Delworth T.L. ; Yang X. ; Gudgel R.G. ; Jia L. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Zeng F.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 14 起始页码: 5187
结束页码: 5203
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Forecasting
; Sea ice
; Time measurement
; Air sea interactions
; Antarctic Bottom Water
; Climate prediction
; Decadal predictions
; Decadal variability
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Subsurface temperature
; Surface conditions
; Oceanography
英文摘要: This study explores the potential predictability of the Southern Ocean (SO) climate on decadal time scales as represented in the GFDL CM2.1 model using prognostic methods. Perfect model predictability experiments are conducted starting from 10 different initial states, showing potentially predictable variations of Antarctic bottom water (AABW) formation rates on time scales as long as 20 years. The associated Weddell Sea (WS) subsurface temperatures and Antarctic sea ice have potential predictability comparable to that of the AABW cell. The predictability of sea surface temperature (SST) variations over the WS and the SO is somewhat smaller, with predictable scales out to a decade. This reduced predictability is likely associated with stronger damping from air-sea interaction. As a complement to this perfect predictability study, the authors also make hindcasts of SO decadal variability using the GFDL CM2.1 decadal prediction system. Significant predictive skill for SO SST on multiyear time scales is found in the hindcast system. The success of the hindcasts, especially in reproducing observed surface cooling trends, is largely due to initializing the state of theAABWcell. Aweak state of theAABWcell leads to cooler surface conditions and more extensive sea ice. Although there are considerable uncertainties regarding the observational data used to initialize the hindcasts, the consistency between the perfect model experiments and the decadal hindcasts at least gives some indication as to where and to what extent skillful decadal SO forecasts might be possible. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48837
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Zhang L.,Delworth T.L.,Yang X.,et al. Estimating decadal predictability for the Southern Ocean using the GFDL CM2.1 model[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(14)