DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0612.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019992157
论文题名: Influences of temperature and precipitation on historical and future snowpack variability over the Northern Hemisphere in the second generation Canadian Earth System Model
作者: Sospedra-Alfonso R. ; Merryfield W.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 12 起始页码: 4633
结束页码: 4656
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Earth (planet)
; Isotherms
; Snow
; Temperature
; Climate sensitivity
; Climate variability
; General circulation model
; Linear relationships
; Snow covers
; Snow water equivalent
; Temperature sensitive
; Threshold temperatures
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; general circulation model
; Northern Hemisphere
; precipitation (climatology)
; snow cover
; snowpack
; temperature profile
; Canada
英文摘要: This study examines the changing roles of temperature and precipitation on snowpack variability in the Northern Hemisphere for Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) climate simulations. The strength of the linear relationship between monthly snow water equivalent (SWE) in January-April and precipitation P or temperature T predictors is found to be a sigmoidal function of the mean temperature over the snow season up to the indicated month. For P predictors, the strength of this relationship increases for colder snow seasons, whereas for T predictors it increases for warmer snow seasons. These behaviors are largely explained by the daily temperature percentiles below freezing during the snow accumulation period. It is found that there is a threshold temperature (-5±1°C, depending on month in the snow season and largely independent of emission scenario), representing a crossover point below which snow seasons are sufficiently cold that P is the primary driver of snowpack amount and above which T is the primary driver. This isotherm allows one to delineate the snow-climate regions and elevation zones in which snow-cover amounts are more vulnerable to a warming climate. As climate projections indicate that seasonal isotherms shift northward and toward higher elevations, regions where snowpack amount is mainly driven by precipitation recede, whereas temperature-sensitive snow-covered areas extend to higher latitudes and/or elevations, with resulting impacts on ecosystems and society. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSERC, Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48879
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Sospedra-Alfonso R.,Merryfield W.J.. Influences of temperature and precipitation on historical and future snowpack variability over the Northern Hemisphere in the second generation Canadian Earth System Model[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(12)