| DOI: | 10.5194/cp-12-1591-2016
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84980390221
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| 论文题名: | Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity? |
| 作者: | Hargreaves J.C.; Annan J.D.
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| 刊名: | Climate of the Past
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| ISSN: | 18149324
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| 出版年: | 2016
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| 卷: | 12, 期:8 | | 起始页码: | 1591
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| 结束页码: | 1599
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | climate modeling
; climate variation
; equilibrium
; paleoclimate
; paleotemperature
; Pliocene
; reconstruction
; temperature anomaly
; uncertainty analysis
; warming
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| 英文摘要: | The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP) is the most recent interval in which atmospheric carbon dioxide was substantially higher than in modern pre-industrial times. It is, therefore, a potentially valuable target for testing the ability of climate models to simulate climates warmer than the pre-industrial state. The recent Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) presented boundary conditions for the mPWP and a protocol for climate model experiments. Here we analyse results from the PlioMIP and, for the first time, discuss the potential for this interval to usefully constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We observe a correlation in the ensemble between their tropical temperature anomalies at the mPWP and their equilibrium sensitivities. If the real world is assumed to also obey this relationship, then the reconstructed tropical temperature anomaly at the mPWP can in principle generate a constraint on the true sensitivity. Directly applying this methodology using available data yields a range for the equilibrium sensitivity of 1.9-3.7 °C, but there are considerable additional uncertainties surrounding the analysis which are not included in this estimate. We consider the extent to which these uncertainties may be better quantified and perhaps lessened in the next few years. © Author(s) 2016. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/48987
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hargreaves J.C.,Annan J.D.. Could the Pliocene constrain the equilibrium climate sensitivity?[J]. Climate of the Past,2016-01-01,12(8)
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