| DOI: | 10.5194/cp-11-1621-2015
|
| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-84949553802
|
| 论文题名: | Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions |
| 作者: | Thomas Z.A.; Kwasniok F.; Boulton C.A.; Cox P.M.; Jones R.T.; Lenton T.M.; Turney C.S.M.
|
| 刊名: | Climate of the Past
|
| ISSN: | 18149324
|
| 出版年: | 2015
|
| 卷: | 11, 期:12 | | 起始页码: | 1621
|
| 结束页码: | 1633
|
| 语种: | 英语
|
| Scopus关键词: | bifurcation
; climate variation
; deglaciation
; early warning system
; monsoon
; paleoclimate
; China
; Hubei
; Hulu Cave
; Jiangsu
; Sanbao Cave
|
| 英文摘要: | Palaeo-records from China demonstrate that the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) is dominated by abrupt and large magnitude monsoon shifts on millennial timescales, switching between periods of high and weak monsoon rains. It has been hypothesized that over these timescales, the EASM exhibits two stable states with bifurcation-Type tipping points between them. Here we test this hypothesis by looking for early warning signals of past bifurcations in speleothem δ18O records from Sanbao Cave and Hulu Cave, China, spanning the penultimate glacial cycle. We find that although there are increases in both autocorrelation and variance preceding some of the monsoon transitions during this period, it is only immediately prior to the abrupt monsoon shift at the penultimate deglaciation (Termination II) that statistically significant increases are detected. To supplement our data analysis, we produce and analyse multiple model simulations that we derive from these data. We find hysteresis behaviour in our model simulations with transitions directly forced by solar insolation. However, signals of critical slowing down, which occur on the approach to a bifurcation, are only detectable in the model simulations when the change in system stability is sufficiently slow to be detected by the sampling resolution of the data set. This raises the possibility that the early warning "alarms" were missed in the speleothem data over the period 224-150 kyr and it was only at the monsoon termination that the change in the system stability was sufficiently slow to detect early warning signals. © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. |
| Citation statistics: |
|
| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
|
| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49091
|
| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化与战略
|
|
There are no files associated with this item.
|
| Recommended Citation: | |
Thomas Z.A.,Kwasniok F.,Boulton C.A.,et al. Early warnings and missed alarms for abrupt monsoon transitions[J]. Climate of the Past,2015-01-01,11(12)
|
|
|