DOI: 10.5194/cp-11-45-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84929468233
论文题名: Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene
作者: Araya-Melo P.A. ; Crucifix M. ; Bounceur N.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2015
卷: 11, 期: 1 起始页码: 45
结束页码: 61
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: carbon dioxide
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; environmental response
; estimation method
; mixed layer
; monsoon
; Northern Hemisphere
; orographic effect
; Pleistocene
; precipitation (climatology)
; simulation
; India
英文摘要: The sensitivity of the Indian monsoon to the full spectrum of climatic conditions experienced during the Pleistocene is estimated using the climate model HadCM3. The methodology follows a global sensitivity analysis based on the emulator approach of Oakley and O'Hagan (2004) implemented following a three-step strategy: (1) development of an experiment plan, designed to efficiently sample a five-dimensional input space spanning Pleistocene astronomical configurations (three parameters), CO2 concentration and a Northern Hemisphere glaciation index; (2) development, calibration and validation of an emulator of HadCM3 in order to estimate the response of the Indian monsoon over the full input space spanned by the experiment design; and (3) estimation and interpreting of sensitivity diagnostics, including sensitivity measures, in order to synthesise the relative importance of input factors on monsoon dynamics, estimate the phase of the monsoon intensity response with respect to that of insolation, and detect potential non-linear phenomena. By focusing on surface temperature, precipitation, mixed-layer depth and sea-surface temperature over the monsoon region during the summer season (June-July-August-September), we show that precession controls the response of four variables: continental temperature in phase with June to July insolation, high glaciation favouring a late-phase response, sea-surface temperature in phase with May insolation, continental precipitation in phase with July insolation, and mixed-layer depth in antiphase with the latter. CO2 variations control temperature variance with an amplitude similar to that of precession. The effect of glaciation is dominated by the albedo forcing, and its effect on precipitation competes with that of precession. Obliquity is a secondary effect, negligible on most variables except sea-surface temperature. It is also shown that orography forcing reduces the glacial cooling, and even has a positive effect on precipitation. As regards the general methodology, it is shown that the emulator provides a powerful approach, not only to express model sensitivity but also to estimate internal variability and detect anomalous simulations. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49188
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Araya-Melo P.A.,Crucifix M.,Bounceur N.. Global sensitivity analysis of the Indian monsoon during the Pleistocene[J]. Climate of the Past,2015-01-01,11(1)