DOI: 10.5194/cp-9-1481-2013
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84880199544
论文题名: Bayesian parameter estimation and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width
作者: Tolwinski-Ward S.E. ; Anchukaitis K.J. ; Evans M.N.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2013
卷: 9, 期: 4 起始页码: 1481
结束页码: 1493
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian analysis
; climatology
; estimation method
; geochronology
; numerical model
; parameterization
; tree ring
; United States
英文摘要: We present a Bayesian model for estimating the parameters of the VS-Lite forward model of tree-ring width for a particular chronology and its local climatology. The scheme also provides information about the uncertainty of the parameter estimates, as well as the model error in representing the observed proxy time series. By inferring VSLite's parameters independently for synthetically generated ring-width series at several hundred sites across the United States, we show that the algorithm is skillful. We also infer optimal parameter values for modeling observed ring-width data at the same network of sites. The estimated parameter values covary in physical space, and their locations in multidimensional parameter space provide insight into the dominant climatic controls on modeled tree-ring growth at each site as well as the stability of those controls. The estimation procedure is useful for forward and inverse modeling studies using VS-Lite to quantify the full range of model uncertainty stemming from its parameterization. © Author(s) 2013. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49404
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Tolwinski-Ward S.E.,Anchukaitis K.J.,Evans M.N.. Bayesian parameter estimation and interpretation for an intermediate model of tree-ring width[J]. Climate of the Past,2013-01-01,9(4)