| 英文摘要: | China should take more active participation in a prospective agreement on the global phase-down of hydrofluorocarbons. China has recently agreed to work towards limiting the production and consumption of the climate-damaging hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In the scenario of HFC regulation proposed by the North American countries, China has to reduce its annual growth rate of HFC emissions from 40% in 2005–2009 to 13% in 2010–2018. Although Chinese leaders face obstruction from the domestic industrial lobbies, we argue that a phase-down of HFCs is aligned with China's self-interest while contributing to global climate mitigation. HFCs are used as replacements for ozone-depleting substances; however, many of them are potent greenhouse gases1. Owing to the rapid growth of demand for air conditioning and refrigeration, the use and release of HFCs, and hence their contribution to climate forcing, are projected to increase significantly under the business-as-usual scenario2. The situation has been exacerbated by the accelerated phase-out of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) in accordance with the 2007 Montreal Protocol3. China is a major HFC producer and consumer. From 2005 to 2010, its HFC production tripled to about 180 thousand metric tons. On a global-warming potential (GWP)-weighted basis, China's HFC production in 2010 that would eventually be emitted into the atmosphere was 230 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMT CO2e), of which 150 MMT CO2e was for domestic HFC consumption. In comparison, China's fossil-fuel CO2 emissions have grown 38% since 2005, hitting 7.03 billion metric tons in 2010 (ref. 4). Although HFC emissions are still small compared with those from energy use, they are increasing much more rapidly. China only recently shifted its stance by joining the United States and other countries in finding ways to limit HFCs. In the 2013 US–China Sunnylands Summit, presidents Obama and Xi signed a landmark agreement on working together to cut HFC consumption and production. This commitment was confirmed again later in the St Petersburg's G20 meeting. These moves have been widely applauded as a positive step towards implementing a meaningful HFC agreement to combat global climate change. Although the Chinese top leadership has agreed to limit HFCs, it is not yet clear how the proposal will be implemented or what its impact on the nation's HFC industry is likely to be. To project China's degree of participation, it is therefore necessary to understand the dynamics of the HFC industry.
After a decade of rapid growth, China has become one of the most important players in the production and use of HFCs. Among the 11 categories of HFCs produced in China, data are available for the eight most commonly used substances: HFC-32, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-227ea, HFC-236fa and HFC-245fa. The omitted three substances, HFC-23 (as substitute for ozone-depleting substances), HFC-161, and HFC-365mfc, account for only a small share of HFC production. In addition, HFC-23 by-product emissions are discussed separately because of the different generation and abatement processes. China's HFC production and consumption on a GWP-weighted basis in 2005–2009 is shown in Fig. 1.
Affiliations
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Junjie Zhang is at the School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego, 9500 Gilman Drive #0519, La Jolla, California 92093-0519, USA
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Can Wang is at the School of Environment and Center for Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
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