DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-1339-2012
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84871902298
论文题名: Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 1: Theory
作者: Sundberg R. ; Moberg A. ; Hind A.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2012
卷: 8, 期: 4 起始页码: 1339
结束页码: 1353
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: accuracy assessment
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; ensemble forecasting
; greenhouse gas
; historical record
; irradiance
; model test
; paleoclimate
; proxy climate record
; Quaternary
; ranking
; statistical analysis
; temporal variation
英文摘要: A statistical framework for comparing the output of ensemble simulations from global climate models with networks of climate proxy and instrumental records has been developed, focusing on near-surface temperatures for the last millennium. This framework includes the formulation of a joint statistical model for proxy data, instrumental data and simulation data, which is used to optimize a quadratic distance measure for ranking climate model simulations. An essential underlying assumption is that the simulations and the proxy/instrumental series have a shared component of variability that is due to temporal changes in external forcing, such as volcanic aerosol load, solar irradiance or greenhouse gas concentrations. Two statistical tests have been formulated. Firstly, a preliminary test establishes whether a significant temporal correlation exists between instrumental/proxy and simulation data. Secondly, the distance measure is expressed in the form of a test statistic of whether a forced simulation is closer to the instrumental/proxy series than unforced simulations. The proposed framework allows any number of proxy locations to be used jointly, with different seasons, record lengths and statistical precision. The goal is to objectively rank several competing climate model simulations (e.g. with alternative model parameterizations or alternative forcing histories) by means of their goodness of fit to the unobservable true past climate variations, as estimated from noisy proxy data and instrumental observations. © Author(s) 2012. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49503
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
Recommended Citation:
Sundberg R.,Moberg A.,Hind A.. Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 1: Theory[J]. Climate of the Past,2012-01-01,8(4)