globalchange  > 气候变化与战略
DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-1355-2012
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84878767395
论文题名:
Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing
作者: Hind A.; Moberg A.; Sundberg R.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2012
卷: 8, 期:4
起始页码: 1355
结束页码: 1365
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: climate modeling ; comparative study ; ensemble forecasting ; experimental study ; historical record ; model test ; paleoclimate ; proxy climate record ; radiative forcing ; reconstruction ; signal-to-noise ratio ; solar radiation ; statistical analysis ; surface temperature
英文摘要: The statistical framework of Part 1 (Sundberg et al., 2012), for comparing ensemble simulation surface temperature output with temperature proxy and instrumental records, is implemented in a pseudo-proxy experiment. A set of previously published millennial forced simulations (Max Planck Institute - COSMOS), including both "low" and "high" solar radiative forcing histories together with other important forcings, was used to define "true" target temperatures as well as pseudo-proxy and pseudo-instrumental series. In a global land-only experiment, using annual mean temperatures at a 30-yr time resolution with realistic proxy noise levels, it was found that the low and high solar full-forcing simulations could be distinguished. In an additional experiment, where pseudo-proxies were created to reflect a current set of proxy locations and noise levels, the low and high solar forcing simulations could only be distinguished when the latter served as targets. To improve detectability of the low solar simulations, increasing the signal-to-noise ratio in local temperature proxies was more efficient than increasing the spatial coverage of the proxy network. The experiences gained here will be of guidance when these methods are applied to real proxy and instrumental data, for example when the aim is to distinguish which of the alternative solar forcing histories is most compatible with the observed/reconstructed climate. © Author(s) 2012.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49523
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Recommended Citation:
Hind A.,Moberg A.,Sundberg R.. Statistical framework for evaluation of climate model simulations by use of climate proxy data from the last millennium - Part 2: A pseudo-proxy study addressing the amplitude of solar forcing[J]. Climate of the Past,2012-01-01,8(4)
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