| 英文摘要: | Natural climate variability complicates the detection of anthropogenic climate change in the twenty-first century. Now, research shows that evidence of human influence first emerges from sea level rather than temperature rise. Detection and attribution of climate change are among the key issues in the assessment reports1, 2 of the IPCC. Internal climate variability, on various timescales, often obscures the anthropogenic signal globally as well as regionally. It takes time for the signals to grow sufficiently above the noise of variability, so that we can confidently state that they are not natural variations in the climate system. As climate lags in its response to external forcing, early detection of anthropogenic climate change signals is particularly important and beneficial for vulnerability assessment, societal adaptation and climate policymaking. Writing in Nature Climate Change, Kewei Lyu and colleagues3 report that in model projections of the twenty-first century, sea-level rise (SLR) leads surface temperature increase in the emergence of anthropogenic climate change signals.
AGENCJA FOTOGRAFICZNA CARO / ALAMY
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Affiliations
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Jianjun Yin is at the Department of Geosciences, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona 85721, USA
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