DOI: 10.5194/cp-8-653-2012
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84859338964
论文题名: Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings
作者: Morales M.S. ; Christie D.A. ; Villalba R. ; Argollo J. ; Pacajes J. ; Silva J.S. ; Alvarez C.A. ; Llancabure J.C. ; Gamboa C.C.S.
刊名: Climate of the Past
ISSN: 18149324
出版年: 2012
卷: 8, 期: 2 起始页码: 653
结束页码: 666
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: anthropogenic effect
; climate forcing
; climate variation
; dendroclimatology
; dicotyledon
; drought
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; glacier dynamics
; lowland environment
; paleoclimate
; paleoecology
; precipitation assessment
; reconstruction
; socioeconomic conditions
; teleconnection
; tree ring
; twentieth century
; vulnerability
; warming
; water demand
; water management
; water resource
; Altiplano
; Andes
; Polylepis tarapacana
英文摘要: Throughout the second half of the 20th century, the Central Andes has experienced significant climatic and environmental changes characterized by a persistent warming trend, an increase in elevation of the 0 °C isotherm, and sustained glacier shrinkage. These changes have occurred in conjunction with a steadily growing demand for water resources. Given the short span of instrumental hydroclimatic records in this region, longer time span records are needed to understand the nature of climate variability and to improve the predictability of precipitation, a key factor modulating the socio-economic development in the South American Altiplano and adjacent arid lowlands. In this study we present the first quasi-millennial, tree-ring based precipitation reconstruction for the South American Altiplano. This annual (November-October) precipitation reconstruction is based on the Polylepis tarapacana tree-ring width series and represents the closest dendroclimatological record to the Equator in South America. This high-resolution reconstruction covers the past 707 yr and provides a unique record characterizing the occurrence of extreme events and consistent oscillations in precipitation. It also allows an assessment of the spatial and temporal stabilities of the teleconnections between rainfall in the Altiplano and hemispheric forcings such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Since the 1930s to present, a persistent negative trend in precipitation has been recorded in the reconstruction, with the three driest years since 1300 AD occurring in the last 70 yr. Throughout the 707 yr, the reconstruction contains a clear ENSO-like pattern at interannual to multidecadal time scales, which determines inter-hemispheric linkages between our reconstruction and other precipitation sensitive records modulated by ENSO in North America. Our reconstruction points out that century-scale dry periods are a recurrent feature in the Altiplano climate, and that the future potential coupling of natural and anthropogenic-induced droughts may have a severe impact on socio-economic activities in the region. Water resource managers must anticipate these changes in order to adapt to future climate change, reduce vulnerability and provide water equitably to all users. © 2012 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49595
Appears in Collections: 气候变化与战略
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Recommended Citation:
Morales M.S.,Christie D.A.,Villalba R.,et al. Precipitation changes in the South American Altiplano since 1300 AD reconstructed by tree-rings[J]. Climate of the Past,2012-01-01,8(2)