DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0712.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019997467
论文题名: Comparison of low-frequency internal climate variability in CMIP5 models and observations
作者: Cheung A.H. ; Mann M.E. ; Steinman B.A. ; Frankcombe L.M. ; England M.H. ; Miller S.K.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 12 起始页码: 4763
结束页码: 4776
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Digital storage
; Linear regression
; Regression analysis
; Surface properties
; Climate variability
; Inter-decadal variability
; Multidecadal variability
; North Atlantic oscillations
; North Pacific
; Northern Hemispheres
; Climate models
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; comparative study
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; North Atlantic Oscillation
; Northern Hemisphere
; Pacific Decadal Oscillation
; prediction
; regional climate
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
英文摘要: Low-frequency internal climate variability (ICV) plays an important role in modulating global surface temperature, regional climate, and climate extremes. However, it has not been completely characterized in the instrumental record and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) model ensemble. In this study, the surface temperature ICV of the North Pacific (NP), North Atlantic (NA), and Northern Hemisphere (NH) in the instrumental record and historical CMIP5 all-forcing simulations is isolated using a semiempirical method wherein the CMIP5 ensemble mean is applied as the external forcing signal and removed from each time series. Comparison of ICV signals derived from this semiempirical method as well as from analysis of ICV in CMIP5 preindustrial control runs reveals disagreement in the spatial pattern and amplitude between models and instrumental data on multidecadal time scales (>20 yr). Analysis of the amplitude of total variability and the ICV in the models and instrumental data indicates that the models underestimate ICV amplitude on low-frequency time scales (>20 yr in the NA; >40 yr in the NP), while agreement is found in the NH variability. A multiple linear regression analysis of ICV in the instrumental record shows that variability in the NP drives decadal-to-interdecadal variability in the NH, whereas the NA drives multidecadal variability in the NH. Analysis of the CMIP5 historical simulations does not reveal such a relationship, indicating model limitations in simulating ICV. These findings demonstrate the need to better characterize low-frequency ICV, which may help improve attribution and decadal prediction. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49638
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences, The University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Science, and Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, and Large Lakes Observatory, University of Minnesota Duluth, Duluth, MN, United States; ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, and Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Cheung A.H.,Mann M.E.,Steinman B.A.,et al. Comparison of low-frequency internal climate variability in CMIP5 models and observations[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(12)