DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0862.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020048095
论文题名: Multiyear variability in the Tasman sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models
作者: Chung C.T.Y. ; Power S.B. ; Santoso A. ; Wang G.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 12 起始页码: 4413
结束页码: 4427
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Climatology
; Floods
; Oceanography
; Surface properties
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Climate variability
; Decadal climate variability
; Decadal variability
; General circulation model
; Inter-decadal pacific oscillations
; Subsurface temperature
; Surface temperatures
; Climate models
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; climate variation
; CMIP
; decadal variation
; ensemble forecasting
; precipitation (climatology)
; Southern Hemisphere
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
; Tasman Sea
英文摘要: Naturally occurring multiyear to decadal variability is evident in rainfall, temperature, severe weather, and flood frequency around the globe. It is therefore important to understand the cause of this variability and the extent to which it can be predicted. Here internally generated decadal climate variability and its predictability potential in an ensemble of CMIP5 models are assessed. Global hot spots of subsurface ocean decadal variability are identified, revealing variability in the southern Tasman Sea that is coherent with variability in much of the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere. It is found that subsurface temperature variability in the southern Tasman Sea primarily arises in response to preceding changes in Southern Hemisphere winds. This variability is multiyear to decadal in character and is coherent with surface temperature in parts of the Southern Hemisphere up to several years later. This provides some degree of potential predictability to surface temperature in the southern Tasman Sea and surrounding regions. A few models exhibit significant correlation between subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea and zonally averaged precipitation south of 50°S; however, the multimodel mean does not exhibit any significant correlation between subsurface variability and precipitation. Models that exhibit stronger subsurface variability in the southern Tasman Sea also have a stronger interdecadal Pacific oscillation signal in the Pacific. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49645
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Chung C.T.Y.,Power S.B.,Santoso A.,et al. Multiyear variability in the Tasman sea and impacts on Southern hemisphere climate in CMIP5 models[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(12)