DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0662.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018999390
论文题名: Emergent constraints in climate projections: A case study of changes in high-latitude temperature variability
作者: Borodina A. ; Fischer E.M. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 10 起始页码: 3655
结束页码: 3670
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Ice
; Sea ice
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; High-quality observations
; Model comparison
; Model errors
; Model evaluation/performance
; Model output statistics
; Process understanding
; Temperature variability
; Climate models
英文摘要: Climate projections from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble show a decrease in interannual surface temperature variability over high latitudes with a large intermodel spread, in particular over the areas of sea ice retreat. Here relationships are found between the models' present-day performance in sea ice-related metrics and future changes in temperature variability. These relations, so-called emergent constraints, can produce ensembles of models calibrated with present-day observations with a narrower spread across their members than across the full ensemble. The underlying assumption is that models in better agreement with observations or reanalyses in a carefully selected metric probably have a more realistic representation of local processes, and therefore are more reliable for projections. Thus, the reliability of this method depends on the availability of high-quality observations or reanalyses. This work represents a step toward formalization of the emergent constraints framework, as so far there is no consensus on how the constraints should be best implemented. The authors quantify the reduction in spread from emerging constraints for various metrics and their combinations, different emission scenarios, and seasons. Some of the general features of emerging constraints are discussed, and how to effectively aggregate information across metrics and seasons to achieve the largest reduction in model spread. It is demonstrated, based on the case of temperature variability, that a robust constraint can be obtained by combining relevant metrics across all seasons. Such a constraint results in a strongly reduced spread across model projections, which is consistent with a process understanding of variability changes due to sea ice retreat. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49700
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Borodina A.,Fischer E.M.,Knutti R.. Emergent constraints in climate projections: A case study of changes in high-latitude temperature variability[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(10)