DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0352.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85017153002
论文题名: The present-day simulation and twenty-first-century projection of the climatology of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic
作者: Liu M. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Smith J.A. ; Murakami H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 8 起始页码: 2739
结束页码: 2756
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Hurricanes
; Phase space methods
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Climate prediction
; Ensembles
; Extratropical cyclones
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Tropical cyclone
; Oceanography
英文摘要: This study explores the simulations and twenty-first-century projections of extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the North Atlantic, with a newly developed global climate model: the Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model version 2.5 (CM2.5). FLOR exhibits good skill in simulating present-day ET properties (e.g., cyclone phase space parameters). A version of FLOR in which sea surface temperature (SST) biases are artificially corrected through flux-adjustment (FLOR-FA) shows much improved simulation of ET activity (e.g., annual ET number). This result is largely attributable to better simulation of basinwide TC activity, which is strongly dependent on larger-scale climate simulation. FLOR-FA is also used to explore changes of ET activity in the twenty-first century under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario. A contrasting pattern is found in which regional TC density increases in the eastern North Atlantic and decreases in the western North Atlantic, probably due to changes in the TC genesis location. The increasing TC frequency in the eastern Atlantic is dominated by increased ET cases. The increased density of TCs undergoing ET in the eastern subtropics of the Atlantic shows two propagation paths: one moves northwest toward the northeast coast of the United States and the other moves northeast toward western Europe, implying increased TC-related risks in these regions. A more TC-favorable future climate, evident in the projected changes of SST and vertical wind shear, is hypothesized to favor the increased ET occurrence in the eastern North Atlantic. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49717
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Liu M.,Vecchi G.A.,Smith J.A.,et al. The present-day simulation and twenty-first-century projection of the climatology of extratropical transition in the North Atlantic[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(8)