DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0311.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85012294013
论文题名: Detectable anthropogenic shift toward heavy precipitation over eastern China
作者: Ma S. ; Zhou T. ; Stone D.A. ; Polson D. ; Dai A. ; Stott P.A. ; Storch H. ; Qian Y. ; Burke C. ; Wu P. ; Zou L. ; Ciavarella A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 4 起始页码: 1381
结束页码: 1396
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Air pollution
; Budget control
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Floods
; Global warming
; Land use
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Anthropogenic effects
; Moisture/moisture budgets
; Optimal fingerprinting
; Precipitation characteristics
; Thermodynamic mechanism
; Trends
; Urban drainage systems
; Greenhouse gases
; aerosol
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric moisture
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation (climatology)
; trend analysis
; China
英文摘要: Changes in precipitation characteristics directly affect society through their impacts on drought and floods, hydro-dams, and urban drainage systems. Global warming increases the water holding capacity of the atmosphere and thus the risk of heavy precipitation. Here, daily precipitation records from over 700 Chinese stations from 1956 to 2005 are analyzed. The results show a significant shift from light to heavy precipitation over eastern China. An optimal fingerprinting analysis of simulations from 11 climate models driven by different combinations of historical anthropogenic (greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use, and ozone) and natural (volcanic and solar) forcings indicates that anthropogenic forcing on climate, including increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs), has had a detectable contribution to the observed shift toward heavy precipitation. Some evidence is found that anthropogenic aerosols (AAs) partially offset the effect of the GHG forcing, resulting in a weaker shift toward heavy precipitation in simulations that include the AA forcing than in simulations with only the GHG forcing. In addition to the thermodynamic mechanism, strengthened water vapor transport from the adjacent oceans and by midlatitude westerlies, resulting mainly from GHG-induced warming, also favors heavy precipitation over eastern China. Further GHG-induced warming is predicted to lead to an increasing shift toward heavy precipitation, leading to increased urban flooding and posing a significant challenge for mega-cities in China in the coming decades. Future reductions in AA emissions resulting from air pollution controls could exacerbate this tendency toward heavier precipitation. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
; NSFC, National Natural Science Foundation of China
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49768
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Climate System, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China; LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China; Joint Center for Global Change Studies, Beijing, China; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; School of GeoSciences, Grant Institute, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; KlimaCampus, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany; Atmospheric Science and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ma S.,Zhou T.,Stone D.A.,et al. Detectable anthropogenic shift toward heavy precipitation over eastern China[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(4)