DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0842.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85014012067
论文题名: Influence of the ocean and greenhouse gases on severe drought likelihood in the central united states in 2012
作者: Rupp D.E. ; Li S. ; Mote P.W. ; Massey N. ; Sparrow S.N. ; Wallom D.C.H.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 5 起始页码: 1807
结束页码: 1819
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Drought
; Evapotranspiration
; Flow of water
; Greenhouse gases
; Moisture
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Soil moisture
; Soils
; Surface waters
; Water supply
; Anthropogenic forcing
; Anthropogenic impacts
; Exceedance probability
; Potential transpiration
; Pre-industrial levels
; Sea surface temperature anomalies
; Soil moisture deficits
; Stomatal conductance
; Oceanography
; climate change
; climate modeling
; drought
; greenhouse gas
; hydrometeorology
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; United States
英文摘要: The impacts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and anthropogenic greenhouse gases on the likelihood of extreme drought occurring in the central United States in the year 2012 were investigated using large-ensemble simulations from a global atmospheric climate model. Two sets of experiments were conducted. In the first, the simulated hydroclimate of 2012 was compared to a baseline period (1986-2014) to investigate the impact of SSTs. In the second, the hydroclimate in a world with 2012-level anthropogenic forcing was compared to five ''counterfactual'' versions of a 2012 world under preindustrial forcing. SST anomalies in 2012 increased the simulated likelihood of an extreme summer precipitation deficit (e.g., the deficit with a 2%exceedance probability) by a factor of 5. The likelihood of an extreme summer soil moisture deficit increased by a similar amount, due in great part to a large spring soil moisture deficit carrying over into summer. An anthropogenic impact on precipitation was detectable in the simulations, doubling the likelihood of what would have been a rainfall deficit with a 2%exceedance probability under preindustrial-level forcings. Despite this reduction in rainfall, summer soil moisture during extreme drought was essentially unaffected by anthropogenic forcing because of 1) evapotranspiration declining roughly one-to-one with a decrease in precipitation due to severe water supply constraint and despite higher evaporative demand and 2) a decrease in stomatal conductance, and therefore a decrease in potential transpiration, with higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49772
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute, College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Science, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States; Environmental Change Institute, School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Oxford e-Research Centre, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Rupp D.E.,Li S.,Mote P.W.,et al. Influence of the ocean and greenhouse gases on severe drought likelihood in the central united states in 2012[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(5)