DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0005.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027252096
论文题名: Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity
作者: Bonfils C. ; Anderson G. ; Santer B.D. ; Phillips T.J. ; Taylor K.E. ; Cuntz M. ; Zelinka M.D. ; Marvel K. ; Cook B.I. ; Cvijanovic I. ; Durack P.J.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 17 起始页码: 6883
结束页码: 6904
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Atmospheric radiation
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Drought
; Evapotranspiration
; Global warming
; Physiology
; Soil moisture
; Water supply
; Anthropogenic warming
; Atmosphere-land interactions
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; Physiological effects
; Potential evapotranspiration
; Teleconnections
; Temperature variability
; Climatology
英文摘要: The 2011-16 California drought illustrates that drought-prone areas do not always experience relief once a favorable phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returns. In the twenty-first century, such an expectation is unrealistic in regions where global warming induces an increase in terrestrial aridity larger than the changes in aridity driven by ENSO variability. This premise is also flawed in areas where precipitation supply cannot offset the global warming-induced increase in evaporative demand. Here, atmosphere-only experiments are analyzed to identify land regions where aridity is currently sensitive to ENSO and where projected future changes in mean aridity exceed the range caused by ENSO variability. Insights into the drivers of these changes in aridity are obtained using simulations with the incremental addition of three different factors to the current climate: ocean warming, vegetation response to elevated CO2 levels, and intensified CO2 radiative forcing. The effect of ocean warming overwhelms the range of ENSO-driven temperature variability worldwide, increasing potential evapotranspiration (PET) in most ENSO-sensitive regions. Additionally, about 39% of the regions currently sensitive to ENSO will likely receive less precipitation in the future, independent of the ENSO phase. Consequently aridity increases in 67%-72% of the ENSO-sensitive area. When both radiative and physiological effects are considered, the area affected by arid conditions rises to 75%-79% when using PET-derived measures of aridity, but declines to 41% when an aridity indicator for total soil moisture is employed. This reduction mainly occurs because plant stomatal resistance increases under enhanced CO2 concentrations, resulting in improved plant water-use efficiency, and hence reduced evapotranspiration and soil desiccation. Imposing CO2-invariant stomatal resistance may overestimate future drying in PET-derived indices. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49780
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA, United States; Annuaire des Laboratoires et des Recherches, Université de Lorraine, UMR1137, Champenoux, France; Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bonfils C.,Anderson G.,Santer B.D.,et al. Competing influences of anthropogenic warming, ENSO, and plant physiology on future terrestrial aridity[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(17)