DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0581.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85012273227
论文题名: Transient climate sensitivity depends on base climate ocean circulation
作者: He J. ; Winton M. ; Vecchi G. ; Jia L. ; Rugenstein M.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 4 起始页码: 1493
结束页码: 1504
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Heat storage
; Oceanography
; Antarctic Bottom Water
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Climate sensitivity
; Ocean circulation
; Ocean heat transport
; Ocean model
; Overturning circulation
; Thermocline circulation
; Climate models
; Antarctic Bottom Water
; climate change
; climate modeling
; oceanic circulation
; oceanic convection
; overturn
; sensitivity analysis
; thermocline
英文摘要: There is large uncertainty in the simulation of transient climate sensitivity. This study aims to understand how such uncertainty is related to the simulation of the base climate by comparing two simulations with the same model but in which CO2 is increased from either a preindustrial (1860) or a present-day (1990) control simulation. This allows different base climate ocean circulations that are representative of those in current climate models to be imposed upon a single model. As a result, the model projects different transient climate sensitivities that are comparable to the multimodel spread. The greater warming in the 1990-start run occurs primarily at high latitudes and particularly over regions of oceanic convection. In the 1990-start run, ocean overturning circulations are initially weaker and weaken less from CO2 forcing. As a consequence, there are smaller reductions in the poleward ocean heat transport, leading to less tropical ocean heat storage and less moderated high-latitude surface warming. This process is evident in both hemispheres, with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and the Antarctic Bottom Water formation dominating the warming differences in each hemisphere. The high-latitude warming in the 1990-start run is enhanced through albedo and cloud feedbacks, resulting in a smaller ocean heat uptake efficacy. The results highlight the importance of improving the base climate ocean circulation in order to provide a reasonable starting point for assessments of past climate change and the projection of future climate change. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49821
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
He J.,Winton M.,Vecchi G.,et al. Transient climate sensitivity depends on base climate ocean circulation[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(4)