DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0424.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008178605
论文题名: Dominant role of subtropical pacific warming in extreme Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future
作者: Murakami H. ; Vecchi G.A. ; Delworth T.L. ; Wittenberg A.T. ; Underwood S. ; Gudgel R. ; Yang X. ; Jia L. ; Zeng F. ; Paffendorf K. ; Zhang W.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 1 起始页码: 243
结束页码: 264
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Greenhouse gases
; Hurricanes
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Weather forecasting
; Climate variability
; Hindcasts
; Multidecadal variability
; Numerical weather prediction/forecasting
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropics
英文摘要: The 2015 hurricane season in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean (EPO and CPO), particularly around Hawaii, was extremely active, including a record number of tropical cyclones (TCs) and the first instance of three simultaneous category-4 hurricanes in the EPO and CPO. A strong El Niño developed during the 2015 boreal summer season and was attributed by some to be the cause of the extreme number of TCs. However, according to a suite of targeted high-resolution model experiments, the extreme 2015 EPO and CPO hurricane season was not primarily induced by the 2015 El Niño tropical Pacific warming, but by warming in the subtropical Pacific Ocean. This warming is not typical of El Niño, but rather of the Pacific meridional mode (PMM) superimposed on long-term anthropogenic warming. Although the likelihood of such an extreme year depends on the phase of natural variability, the coupled GCM projects an increase in the frequency of such extremely active TC years over the next few decades for EPO, CPO, and Hawaii as a result of enhanced subtropical Pacific warming from anthropogenic greenhouse gas forcing. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49824
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Engility Corporation, Chantilly, VA, United States; University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Murakami H.,Vecchi G.A.,Delworth T.L.,et al. Dominant role of subtropical pacific warming in extreme Eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(1)