Aerosols
; Air pollution
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric temperature
; Atmospheric thermodynamics
; Fossil fuels
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse effect
; Greenhouse gases
; Surface properties
; Atmosphere-ocean interactions
; Atmospheric circulation
; Fossil fuel emissions
; General circulation model
; Intertropical convergence zone
; Monsoon circulations
; Northern Hemispheres
; Temperature response
; Climate models
; aerosol
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric circulation
; atmospheric general circulation model
; atmospheric pollution
; climate modeling
; concentration (composition)
; greenhouse gas
; precipitation (climatology)
; surface temperature
; Far East
; Southeast Asia
英文摘要:
Experiments with a climate model (NorESM1) were performed to isolate the effects of aerosol particles and greenhouse gases on surface temperature and precipitation in simulations of future climate. The simulations show that by 2025-49 a reduction of aerosol emissions from fossil fuels following a maximum technically feasible reduction (MFR) scenario could lead to a global and Arctic warming of 0.26 and 0.84 K, respectively, as compared with a simulation with fixed aerosol emissions at the level of 2005. If fossil fuel emissions of aerosols follow a current legislation emissions (CLE) scenario, the NorESM1 model simulations yield a nonsignificant change in global and Arctic average surface temperature as compared with aerosol emissions fixed at year 2005. The corresponding greenhouse gas effect following the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) emission scenario leads to a global and Arctic warming of 0.35 and 0.94 K, respectively. The model yields a marked annual average northward shift in the intertropical convergence zone with decreasing aerosol emissions and subsequent warming of the Northern Hemisphere. The shift is most pronounced in the MFR scenario but also visible in the CLE scenario. The modeled temperature response to a change in greenhouse gas concentrations is relatively symmetric between the hemispheres, and there is no marked shift in the annual average position of the intertropical convergence zone. The strong reduction in aerosol emissions in the MFR scenario also leads to a net southward cross-hemispheric energy transport anomaly both in the atmosphere and ocean, and enhanced monsoon circulation in Southeast Asia and East Asia causing an increase in precipitation over a large part of this region.
Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Wellington, New Zealand; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Acosta Navarro J.C.,Ekman A.M.L.,Pausata F.S.R.,et al. Future response of temperature and precipitation to reduced aerosol emissions as compared with increased greenhouse gas concentrations[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(3)