DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0277.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85014540115
论文题名: Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia
作者: Polvani L.M. ; Sun L. ; Butler A.H. ; Richter J.H. ; Deser C.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 6 起始页码: 1959
结束页码: 1969
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric movements
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Earth atmosphere
; Forecasting
; Nickel
; Oceanography
; Surface waters
; Troposphere
; Upper atmosphere
; Climate variability
; ENSO
; Europe
; North Atlantic Ocean
; Seasonal forecasting
; Stratosphere-troposphere coupling
; Climatology
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate variation
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; stratosphere-troposphere interaction
; sudden stratospheric warming
; winter
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Eurasia
; Europe
英文摘要: Stratospheric conditions are increasingly being recognized as an important driver of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate variability. Mindful that the observational record is relatively short, and that internal climate variability can be large, the authors here analyze a new 10-member ensemble of integrations of a stratosphere-resolving, atmospheric general circulation model, forced with the observed evolution of sea surface temperature (SST) during 1952-2003. Previous studies are confirmed, showing that El Niño conditions enhance the frequency of occurrence of stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs), whereas La Niña conditions do not appear to affect it. However, large differences are noted among ensemble members, suggesting caution when interpreting the relatively short observational record. More importantly, it is emphasized that the majority of SSWs are not caused by anomalous tropical Pacific SSTs. Comparing composites of winters with and without SSWs in each ENSO phase separately, it is demonstrated that stratospheric variability gives rise to large and statistically significant anomalies in tropospheric circulation and surface conditions over the North Atlantic and Eurasia. This indicates that, for those regions, climate variability of stratospheric origin is comparable in magnitude to variability originating from tropical Pacific SSTs, so that the occurrence of a single SSW in a given winter is able to completely alter seasonal climate predictions based solely on ENSO conditions. These findings, corroborating other recent studies, highlight the importance of accurately forecasting SSWs for improved seasonal prediction of North Atlantic and Eurasian climate. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49870
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, United States; NOAA/ESRL, Boulder, CO, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Polvani L.M.,Sun L.,Butler A.H.,et al. Distinguishing stratospheric sudden warmings from ENSO as key drivers of wintertime climate variability over the North Atlantic and Eurasia[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(6)