DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0348.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008643954
论文题名: Persistence and predictions of the remarkable warm anomaly in the northeastern Pacific ocean during 2014-16
作者: Hu Z.-Z. ; Kumar A. ; Jha B. ; Zhu J. ; Huang B.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 2 起始页码: 689
结束页码: 702
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Meteorology
; Surface waters
; Air sea interactions
; ENSO
; Extreme events
; General circulation model
; North Pacific Ocean
; Operational forecasting
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate prediction
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; extreme event
; sea surface temperature
; temperature anomaly
; twenty first century
; weather forecasting
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean (Northeast)
; Pacific Ocean (Tropical)
英文摘要: In this work, the evolution and prediction of the persistent and remarkable warm sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the northeastern Pacific during October 2013-June 2016 are examined. Based on experiments with an atmospheric model, the possible contribution of SSTAs in different ocean basins to the atmospheric circulation anomalies is identified. Further, through verifying the real-time forecasts, current capabilities in predicting such an extreme warm event with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model are assessed. During the long-lasting warm event, there were two warm maxima in the area-averaged SSTA around January 2014 and July 2015, respectively. The warm anomaly originated at the oceanic surface and propagated downward and reached about 300 m. Model experiments forced by observed SST suggest that the long persistence of the atmospheric anomalies in the northeastern Pacific as a whole may be partially explained by SST forcing, particularly in the tropical Pacific Ocean associated with a persistent warm SSTA in 2014/15 and an extremely strong El Niño in 2015/16, via its influence on atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific. Nevertheless, it was a challenge to predict the evolution of this warm event, especially for its growth. That is consistent with the fact that the SSTAs in extratropical oceans are largely a consequence of unpredictable atmospheric variability. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, Norsk Sykepleierforbund
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49872
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Prediction Center, NOAA/NWS/NCEP, College Park, MD, United States; Innovim, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies, Department of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences, College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Hu Z.-Z.,Kumar A.,Jha B.,et al. Persistence and predictions of the remarkable warm anomaly in the northeastern Pacific ocean during 2014-16[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(2)