| DOI: | 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0697.1
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85027249354
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| 论文题名: | Changes in winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in high-resolution regional pseudo-global warming simulations |
| 作者: | Michaelis A.C.; Willison J.; Lackmann G.M.; Robinson W.A.
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| 刊名: | Journal of Climate
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| ISSN: | 8948755
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 30, 期:17 | | 起始页码: | 6905
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| 结束页码: | 6925
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Earth atmosphere
; Global warming
; Heat flux
; Kinetic energy
; Kinetics
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Atmospheric simulations
; Eddy kinetic energy
; Extratropical cyclones
; Feature tracking algorithm
; Heavy precipitation
; Latent heat release
; North Atlantic Ocean
; North-east North Atlantic
; Climate change
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| 英文摘要: | The present study investigates changes in the location, frequency, intensity, and dynamical processes of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones with warming consistent with the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The modeling, analysis, and prediction (MAP) climatology of midlatitude storminess (MCMS) feature-tracking algorithm was utilized to analyze 10 cold-season high-resolution atmospheric simulations over the North Atlantic region in current and future climates. Enhanced extratropical cyclone activity is most evident in the northeast North Atlantic and off the U.S. East Coast. These changes in cyclone activity are offset from changes in eddy kinetic energy and eddy heat flux. Investigation of the minimum SLP reached at each grid point reveals a lack of correspondence between the strongest events in the current and future simulations, indicating the future simulations produced a different population of storms. Examination of the percent change of storms in the storm-track region shows a reduction in the number of strong storms (i.e., those reaching a minimum SLP perturbation of at least -51 hPa). Storm-relative composites of strong and moderate storms show an increase in precipitation, associated with enhanced latent heat release and strengthening of the 900-700-hPa layer-average potential vorticity (PV). Other structural changes found for cyclones in a future climate include weakened upper-level PV for strong storms and a weakened near-surface potential temperature anomaly for moderate storms, demonstrating a change in storm dynamics. Furthermore, the impacts associated with extratropical cyclones, such as strong near-surface winds and heavy precipitation, strengthen and become more frequent with warming. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49875
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Department of Marine, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Michaelis A.C.,Willison J.,Lackmann G.M.,et al. Changes in winter North Atlantic extratropical cyclones in high-resolution regional pseudo-global warming simulations[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(17)
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