DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0256.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85008626013
论文题名: Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels
作者: Korty R.L. ; Emanuel K.A. ; Huber M. ; Zamora R.A.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2017
卷: 30, 期: 2 起始页码: 649
结束页码: 667
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Global warming
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Environmental conditions
; Favorable conditions
; Hurricanes/typhoons
; Paleoclimates
; Storm environments
; Surface temperatures
; Thermodynamic conditions
; Tropical cyclone
; Carbon dioxide
; carbon dioxide
; climate modeling
; computer simulation
; cyclogenesis
; downscaling
; global climate
; hurricane
; paleoclimate
; storm track
; surface temperature
; tropical cyclone
; typhoon
; wind shear
英文摘要: A method to simulate thousands of tropical cyclones using output from a global climate model is applied to simulations that span very high surface temperatures forced with high levels of carbon dioxide (CO2). The climatology of the storms downscaled from a simulation with modern-day conditions is compared to that of events downscaled from two other simulations featuring 8 and 32 times preindustrial-era levels of CO2. Storms shift poleward with warming: genesis locations and track densities increase in subtropical and higher latitudes, and power dissipation increases poleward of 20°S and 30°N. The average latitude at which storms reach their maximum intensity shifts poleward by more than 1.5° latitude in the 8 × CO2 experiment and by more than 7° latitude in the 32 × CO2 case. Storms live longer and are more numerous in both of the warmer climates. These increases come largely from an expansion of the area featuring favorable conditions into subtropics and midlatitudes, with some regions of the Arctic having the thermodynamic conditions necessary to sustain systems in the hottest case. Storms of category 5 intensity are 52% more frequent in the 8 × CO2 experiment but 40% less so in the 32 × CO2 case, largely owing to a substantial decline in low-latitude activity associated with increases in a normalized measure of wind shear called the ventilation index. Changes in genesis and track densities align well with differences in the ventilation index, and environmental conditions become substantially more favorable poleward of about 20° latitude in the warmer climates. © 2017 American Meteorological Society. 资助项目: NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
; NSF, National Science Foundation
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/49891
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, United States; Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States; University of New Hampshire, Durham, NH, United States; Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Korty R.L.,Emanuel K.A.,Huber M.,et al. Tropical cyclones downscaled from simulations with very high carbon dioxide levels[J]. Journal of Climate,2017-01-01,30(2)