DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0304.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84962255063
论文题名: Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: Mechanisms and implications
作者: Deser C. ; Terray L. ; Phillips A.S.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 6 起始页码: 2237
结束页码: 2258
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric radiation
; Atmospheric structure
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Meteorology
; Signal to noise ratio
; Anthropogenic effects
; Atmospheric circulation
; Climate variability
; North American
; Trends
; Variability
; Climate models
; air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; atmospheric circulation
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; climate variation
; trend analysis
; winter
; Canada
; United States
英文摘要: This study elucidates the physical mechanisms underlying internal and forced components of winter surface air temperature (SAT) trends over North America during the past 50 years (1963-2012) using a combined observational and modeling framework. The modeling framework consists of 30 simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) at 1° latitude-longitude resolution, each of which is subject to an identical scenario of historical radiative forcing but starts from a slightly different atmospheric state. Hence, any spread within the ensemble results from unpredictable internal variability superimposed upon the forced climate change signal. Constructed atmospheric circulation analogs are used to estimate the dynamical contribution to forced and internal components of SAT trends: Thermodynamic contributions are obtained as a residual. Internal circulation trends are estimated to account for approximately one-third of the observed wintertime warming trend over North America and more than half locally over parts of Canada and the United States. Removing the effects of internal atmospheric circulation variability narrows the spread of SAT trends within the CESM ensemble and brings the observed trends closer to the model's radiatively forced response. In addition, removing internal dynamics approximately doubles the signal-to-noise ratio of the simulated SAT trends and substantially advances the "time of emergence" of the forced component of SAT anomalies. The methodological framework proposed here provides a general template for improving physical understanding and interpretation of observed and simulated climate trends worldwide and may help to reconcile the diversity of SAT trends across the models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50006
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Sciences de L'Univers au CERFACS, URA-1875, CERFACS/CNRS, Toulouse, France
Recommended Citation:
Deser C.,Terray L.,Phillips A.S.. Forced and internal components of winter air temperature trends over North America during the past 50 years: Mechanisms and implications[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(6)