DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0886.1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995390493
论文题名: On the drivers and predictability of seasonal-to-interannual variations in regional sea level
作者: Roberts C.D. ; Calvert D. ; Dunstone N. ; Hermanson L. ; Palmer M.D. ; Smith D.
刊名: Journal of Climate
ISSN: 8948755
出版年: 2016
卷: 29, 期: 21 起始页码: 7565
结束页码: 7585
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Climatology
; Forecasting
; Signal processing
; Atlantic meridional overturning circulations
; Atmospheric variability
; Climate prediction
; Climate variability
; Heat and freshwater fluxes
; Interannual time scale
; Ocean model simulations
; Seasonal forecasting
; Sea level
英文摘要: Observations and eddy-permitting ocean model simulations are used to evaluate the drivers of sea level variability associated with 15 modes of climate variability covering the Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans. Sea level signals are decomposed into barotropic, steric, and inverted barometer contributions. Forcings are decomposed into surface winds, buoyancy fluxes, and Ekman pumping. Seasonal-to-interannual sea level variability in the low latitudes is governed almost entirely by the thermosteric response to wind forcing associated with tropical modes of climate variability. In the extratropics, changes to dynamic sea level associated with atmospheric modes of variability include a substantial barotropic response to wind forcing, particularly over the continental shelf seas. However, wind-driven steric changes are also important in some locations. On interannual time scales, wind-forced steric changes dominate, although heat and freshwater fluxes are important in the northwest Atlantic, where low-frequency sea level variations are associated with changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Using the version 3 of the Met Office Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys3), the predictability of large-scale dynamic sea level anomalies on seasonal-to-interannual time scales is evaluated. For the first year of the hindcast simulations, DePreSys3 exhibits skill exceeding persistence over large regions of the Pacific, Atlantic, and Indian Oceans. Skill is particularly high in the tropical Indo-Pacific because of the accurate initialization and propagation of thermocline depth anomalies associated with baroclinic adjustments to remote wind forcing. Skill in the extratropics is hindered by the limited predictability of wind anomalies associated with modes of atmospheric variability that dominate local and/or barotropic responses. © 2016 American Meteorological Society. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/50028
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Roberts C.D.,Calvert D.,Dunstone N.,et al. On the drivers and predictability of seasonal-to-interannual variations in regional sea level[J]. Journal of Climate,2016-01-01,29(21)